Recent events
0.07492
Relative Brier Score
79
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 24 | 333 | 79 | 354 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 40 | 12 | 49 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 23 | 94 | 42 | 103 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 19 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
This forecast will expire on Jul 14, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+96%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
0%
(-96%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
100%
(+1%)
No
Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024
Current situation
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
This forecast will expire on Jul 9, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(+3%)
Yes
Apr 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2024
96%
(-3%)
No
Apr 9, 2024 to Oct 9, 2024
Recent Israel attack on Iranian embassy. I still am pretty low because I think a direct Iranian attack on Israeli territory is unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
2%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+69%)
Yes
0%
(-69%)
No
Seems like it's happening
https://about.fb.com/news/2024/02/labeling-ai-generated-images-on-facebook-instagram-and-threads/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 499
2%
(0%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2000
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
98%
(+1%)
No
Situations remains tense and doesnt seem favourable for elections
Files
Why do you think you're right?
NATO is one reason
Putin has never said he will invade these regions- the speculation that they will have always seemed to be a tactic of Western propaganda to build up collective fear against the Russians
Why might you be wrong?
The Russian minority in Estonia who doesn't have voting rights