RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score for DeepSeek’s highest scoring model be on 31 December 2025?

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 30, 2025 11:57AM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 66	0%	0%	+0%	-5%
Between 67 and 70, inclusive	3%	17%	-14%	+0%
Between 71 and 74, inclusive	39%	43%	-4%	+10%
Between 75 and 78, inclusive	58%	29%	+29%	+4%
More than or equal to 79	0%	10%	-10%	-9%

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 17, 2025 03:05PM
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	42%	54%	-12%	-3%
No	58%	46%	+12%	+3%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 10:29PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications	9%	4%	+5%	-1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP	90%	94%	-4%	+1%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 10:45PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	48%	30%	+18%	+0%
No	52%	70%	-18%	+0%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 11:19PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	0%	3%	-3%	-2%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	29%	29%	+0%	-1%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	59%	59%	+0%	+3%
More than or equal to 80	12%	9%	+3%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 11:19PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Latvia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	3%	-3%	+0%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 11:20PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	100%	-1%	+0%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 12, 2025 01:34PM
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 59	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	31%	9%	+22%	-3%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	68%	52%	+16%	+2%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	1%	32%	-31%	+2%
More than or equal to 90	0%	6%	-6%	-1%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 12, 2025 01:35PM
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Jul 12, 2025 to Jan 12, 2027	Oct 12, 2025 01:35PM	4%	-2%	-3%
No	98%	Jul 12, 2025 to Jan 12, 2027	Oct 12, 2025 01:35PM	96%	+2%	+3%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 12, 2025 01:35PM
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	-1%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+1%

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