47th
Accuracy Rank

Heramb_42

About:

- Research fellow at Center for AI and Digital Policy
-A fourth-year undergrad at IIT Roorkee

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Forecasted Questions
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From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(18 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 02, 2024 10:13PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 49 98% 95%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive 2% 4%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive 0% 0%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive 0% 0%
More than or equal to 200 0% 0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 02, 2024 10:15PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 52% 55%
No 48% 45%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 02, 2024 10:16PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 4%
No 97% 96%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 14, 2024 09:04AM UTC
(30 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024 May 14, 2024 4%
No 100% Apr 14, 2024 to Oct 14, 2024 May 14, 2024 96%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 27, 2024 02:10PM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 1%
Latvia 0% 1%
Lithuania 0% 1%

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 03, 2024 08:07PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 98%

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 03, 2024 08:08PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 80% 81%
No 20% 19%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 03, 2024 08:08PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 6% May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025 Aug 3, 2024 12%
No 94% May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025 Aug 3, 2024 88%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 03, 2024 08:11PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 5% May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 Aug 3, 2024 7%
No 95% May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 Aug 3, 2024 93%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 03, 2024 08:12PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 4% May 3, 2024 to Jun 3, 2024 Jun 3, 2024 6%
No 96% May 3, 2024 to Jun 3, 2024 Jun 3, 2024 94%
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