INFER Public

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 19, 2024 01:41PM UTC
(28 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Apr 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025	Jul 19, 2024	10%	-5%	-7%
No	95%	Apr 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025	Jul 19, 2024	90%	+5%	+7%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 01:30PM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	4%	-3%	-1%
No	99%	96%	+3%	+1%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 01:40PM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	6%	8%	-2%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	21%	11%	+10%	-1%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 01:45PM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Apr 21, 2024 to Oct 21, 2024	May 21, 2024	2%	+1%	-2%
No	97%	Apr 21, 2024 to Oct 21, 2024	May 21, 2024	98%	-1%	+2%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 21, 2024 01:58PM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	12%	-10%	-3%
No	98%	88%	+10%	+3%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 02:05AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	1%	4%	-3%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	99%	95%	+4%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 02:05AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024	Aug 1, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 02:09AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	3%	+1%	-1%
No	96%	97%	-1%	+1%

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 02:10AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
2023 Q2	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q3	0%	0%	+0%	0%
2023 Q4	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2024 Q1	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
2024 Q2	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 02:10AM UTC
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	2%	5%	-3%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

ScottEastman

Scott Eastman

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