3rd
Accuracy Rank

Perspectus

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? -0.000221
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? 0.007301
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025? -0.013159
    Jun 25, 2025 02:00AM Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer? -0.09064
    Jun 21, 2025 11:50PM Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025? -0.1966
    Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025) 0.060145
    May 31, 2025 05:00PM On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? -0.06759
    Apr 28, 2025 01:00PM Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025? 0.026722
    Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024? 0.107162
    Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? -0.000376
    Jan 9, 2025 02:00PM Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2024 and Jan 9, 2025) -0.000477
    Jan 4, 2025 05:00PM Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025) -0.00359
    Jan 4, 2025 05:00PM Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025) 0.002668
    Jan 2, 2025 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 2, 2024 and Jan 2, 2025) -0.000019
    Jan 1, 2025 07:00PM Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 1, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.177094
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? -0.001087
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? -0.009188
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024? -0.015288
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA? -0.000418
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? -0.004253
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