Forecasted Questions
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 02:08PM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 03, 2024 02:08PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 | Jun 3, 2024 | 10% | -4% | -1% |
| No | 94% | May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024 | Jun 3, 2024 | 90% | +4% | +1% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 02:09PM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 03, 2024 02:09PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 4% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 96% | +1% | +0% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 02:09PM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 03, 2024 02:09PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 499 | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
| Between 500 and 999, inclusive | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 2000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 02:11PM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 03, 2024 02:11PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 23% | 14% | +9% | -4% |
| Armenia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Georgia | 6% | 8% | -2% | +3% |
| Kazakhstan | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 02:11PM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 03, 2024 02:11PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 02:12PM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 03, 2024 02:12PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 81% | 80% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 19% | 20% | -1% | +0% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
24 Forecasts
24 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 02:12PM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 03, 2024 02:12PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 96% | +4% | +0% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
26 Forecasts
26 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 02:13PM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 03, 2024 02:13PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 12% | -11% | -2% |
| No | 99% | 88% | +11% | +2% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts
20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 02:13PM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 03, 2024 02:13PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 97% | 97% | +0% | +1% |
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts
23 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 03, 2024 02:13PM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 03, 2024 02:13PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |