The conflict will likely continue to rage at least indirectly.
0.020846
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 11 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 10 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 9, 2024 06:10PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Feb 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2024
95%
No
Feb 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
25%
Yes
Feb 4, 2024 to Feb 4, 2025
75%
No
Feb 4, 2024 to Feb 4, 2025
Iran cannot afford to go to war with another nation this soon and given the fraught nature of affairs in the region overall.
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
This forecast expired on Mar 5, 2024 05:24AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Dec 5, 2023 to Jun 5, 2024
99%
No
Dec 5, 2023 to Jun 5, 2024
I doubt that Iran would risk interfering in this conflict directly and subsequently being dragged into the geopolitical mess it has entailed.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 17, 2023 06:35PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Nov 17, 2023 to May 17, 2024
90%
No
Nov 17, 2023 to May 17, 2024
Although there is certainly pushback against oppressive government policies in Iran, the idea of a consolidated protest against said policies at this point in time of the magnitude projected here -- 10,000 people -- simply may not be feasible.
Files
Given the US' up and coming position as supposedly the hegemon of a unipolar world, as well as the conflict in Gaza receiving much international energy right now, it is extremely unlikely Iran will stir the pot further in the Middle East by conducting an air strike.