Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?

Started May 05, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC

OpenAI released GPT-3 in June 2020, and GPT-4 in March 2023 (Forbes). Although there have been rumors that OpenAI has already begun working on GPT-5, the CEO of OpenAI has denied this (The Verge). 

Resolution criteria:
This question will resolve “yes” if OpenAI makes a fifth generation GPT (i.e., GPT-5) available to members of the public to use. It is expected that Open AI’s next GPT will be called “GPT-5” but in the event that it is released with another name, the new GPT must be the successor to GPT-4, as opposed to an update (e.g., GPT-4.5). GPT-5 must be available for anyone to access, whether for free or through a paid subscription, to count for resolution. 

Read more about the possible release of GPT-5 on the INFER blog.

Question clarification
Issued on 05/11/23 05:10pm
We received a clarification request asking whether Microsoft releasing GPT-5 would count. If GPT-5 is released by Microsoft, this question will resolve "yes", as Microsoft is a partner and substantial investor in OpenAI. If Microsoft releases a Large Language Model not named "GPT-5", the LLM must clearly be the successor to GPT-4 and be built by or in collaboration with OpenAI to count for resolution.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.27%
No 97.73%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 176
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 988
Average for questions older than 6 months: 214
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000721
2.
-0.000693
3.
-0.000674
4.
-0.00067
5.
-0.000648

Consensus Trend

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username