qassiov
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Dec 28, 2023 11:55AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20% (+7%)
Yes
Nov 28, 2023 to May 28, 2024

My reasoning is basically the same as that contained here: https://www.swiftcentre.org/israel-hamas-forecast-update/

While there's a ceasefire, the ground invasion of Gaza is moving swiftly, and the chances that the US and/or Israel strike Iran after that seem pretty high to me. The US is already striking IRGC targets in Syria, and an Israeli invasion of South Lebanon is still on the cards (which would presumably escalate tensions with Iran even further).

Biden will try and avoid a war with Iran, but there's plenty of precedent for limited strikes on Iranian assets.

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