INFER Public

sanyero made their 1st forecast (view all):

This forecast expired on Apr 14, 2024 07:47PM

Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

30%

Yes

Mar 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2024

70%

Mar 14, 2024 to Sep 14, 2024

General sentiment seems to be a bit grim. There have been negative sentiment all around, including the articles linked in the description, and other sources (1, 2).
Hezbollah sentiment on HAMAS positive.
Additional aggression might not be as damaging to Israel's reputation compared to before?
Metaculus gives 35% likelihood to a similar question (will there be 1000 or more dead in Israel-Hezbollah conflict).
Manifold gives a very high likelihood of 50% of Israel-Hezbollah war in 2024 (however, their resolution criteria is a bit vague, mentioning war-time military action as a resolver).

Files

There might not be an official declaration of war even if there is military action taken.
We might be in an aggressive sentiment phase that mellows in the future.
International reaction to Israel might take a turn towards greater sternness.

Files

Mar 14, 2024 07:47PM UTC