Khamenei is about to turn 85. An American male age 85 has a roughly 11% chance of dying within a year. While obviously not American, Khamenei's health is a national priority, and will be treated as such. So, American probabilities are a reasonable baseline. Domestic unrest is obvious, but manageable for a country that is used to unrest, posing no real threat. Inflation is high at 35.8%, but that is a reduction and GDP growth remain solid. No economic indicators presage a crisis, and most are trending down. The war in Gaza poses limited risk if Hezbollah were to engage heavily, but even that risk poses little threat to Khamenei himself, and nothing this Huthis are doing poses a large direct threat of regime change. American sanctions have not changed recently and will not change during a year of divided government and a presidential election. Neither side would want to give the other a win. Therefore, age is the only significant factor at 10%, plus 2% risk of domestic upheaval given the political circumstances related to their election; 1% risk from foreign influence; and 1% risk from Revolutionary Guard coup.
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Why might you be wrong?
Domestic resistance to the regime could be a larger issue than western media can grasp, causing a much larger probability of regime change from that source.
Why do you think you're right?
Khamenei is about to turn 85. An American male age 85 has a roughly 11% chance of dying within a year. While obviously not American, Khamenei's health is a national priority, and will be treated as such. So, American probabilities are a reasonable baseline. Domestic unrest is obvious, but manageable for a country that is used to unrest, posing no real threat. Inflation is high at 35.8%, but that is a reduction and GDP growth remain solid. No economic indicators presage a crisis, and most are trending down. The war in Gaza poses limited risk if Hezbollah were to engage heavily, but even that risk poses little threat to Khamenei himself, and nothing this Huthis are doing poses a large direct threat of regime change. American sanctions have not changed recently and will not change during a year of divided government and a presidential election. Neither side would want to give the other a win. Therefore, age is the only significant factor at 10%, plus 2% risk of domestic upheaval given the political circumstances related to their election; 1% risk from foreign influence; and 1% risk from Revolutionary Guard coup.
Why might you be wrong?
Domestic resistance to the regime could be a larger issue than western media can grasp, causing a much larger probability of regime change from that source.