On average, forecasters expect an increase in the polarization of U.S. citizens by 2024, confirming the upward trend. However, the expected increase from 51.3 to 54.99 does not reflect some of the differences in forecasters' expectations.
Most forecasters expect an increase. They reason that Republicans continue to contest the outcome of the 2020 U.S. election, Donald Trump's polarizing influence on public debate, an expected aggressive Republican campaign, the Biden administration's mistakes in withdrawing from Afghanistan, the difficulties of Corona politics, and the overall upward trend of this index.
Another set of forecasters believes it is more likely to stagnate. They say people are tired of polarization, and Biden is polarizing far less than his predecessor.
Another portion of forecasters believe it will decline. They expect a more moderate Republican presidential candidate in 2024, an impact of the social media ban on Donald Trump's influence on American politics, the positive influence of Joe Biden and a return to normal politics, the trillion-dollar bills, and a possible Republican victory in the House of Representatives in 2022.