Summary of forecast activity, covering question launch on 2021-08-1 to 2021-09-17
@2e10e122 estimates the base rate at 8% over the next six months. See also Gandt ’s analysis based on historical conflicts in the area.
The most commonly cited reason it won’t happen is the timing around the Winter Olympics (mentioned 19 times so far).
This question is highly dominated by the risk of China attacking Taiwan. However, there are also some points about India ( see @Gandt and @DKC ) and Vietnam (see @Mrobles ). A couple of cited reasons are: as for India its nuclear capability and as for Vietnam that, together with China, they are members of ASEAN (see @ansantillan )