North Korea has conducted 4 nuclear tests since Kim Jong-un took over in 2012.[1] * Taking no other factors into account, there is roughly a 12% chance that North Korea conducts a test between now and when the question closes on April 1, 2023.
However, there are a few pertinent factors to consider. * A couple factors are fairly strong indicators of an imminent test. * A couple factors that appear to be strong are not. * There are also reasons for uncertainty.
Satellite imagery showed activity at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test site in 2022.[2] * The facility, which was formerly shut down after a self-imposed moratorium, is now suspected of being operational as of June 2022. * Activity here preceded every known test in the sample. * The average lag after confirmed activity would put North Korea’s next test sometime in late 2022 or early 2023.
Expert opinion thinks a test is a matter of “not if, but when.”[3] * Some speculated test dates have come and gone, but experts still believe that “North Korea is ready to conduct a nuclear test at any time if Chairman Kim Jong-un decides to do so.”[4] * Expert opinion takes a lot of flak in various domains, but South Korean intelligence, as well as analysts abroad, have reliably anticipated every known test in the past 10 years.
North Korea has conducted a record number of missile tests this year.[5] * Public displays of military force, however, are a wash. * Saber rattling immediately preceded every test except one. * Saber rattling also occurred every year when a test did not occur, except one.
North Korea is experiencing a severe economic crisis.[6] * Beyond domestic food issues, North Korea is also buckling under crushing economic sanctions.[7] * Experts have speculated that Kim Jong-un will use nuclear force as a bargaining chip to relieve sanctions, i.e. “You lift the sanctions, I stop rattling the nuclear saber.” * Nuclear force might very well be a bargaining chip, but an economic crisis is not a reliable indicator of an imminent test. * North Korea experienced below average economic performance in only 1 of 3 test years. * However, GDP either stalled, decelerated, or contracted in 7 of the 8 years when a test did not occur.
North Korea wants to talk. * “North Korea on Oct. 5 [2021] restored its hotlines and other communications with South Korea.”[8] * There is little public information on terms and proposals, but given the events of the past year, we can safely assume that any communication did not go well.
To wrap it up: * A nuclear test would be a powerful show of force in a time of domestic and international instability. * North Korea might believe that the benefits of such a show outweigh the risks of averting peace talks and economic relief in the short term. * North Korea might also believe that a test not only gives them the power position at the bargaining table, but that there’s a non-negligible chance a test could fast track a path to fulfilling their demands. * As of today, I think a test is more than 70% likely to occur before April 1, 2023. * These odds, of course, will diminish considerably as the window for this question closes. * If peace talks with South Korea and the US publicly resume, then a test will almost certainly not occur.
* Taking no other factors into account, there is roughly a 12% chance that North Korea conducts a test between now and when the question closes on April 1, 2023.
However, there are a few pertinent factors to consider.
* A couple factors are fairly strong indicators of an imminent test.
* A couple factors that appear to be strong are not.
* There are also reasons for uncertainty.
Satellite imagery showed activity at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test site in 2022.[2]
* The facility, which was formerly shut down after a self-imposed moratorium, is now suspected of being operational as of June 2022.
* Activity here preceded every known test in the sample.
* The average lag after confirmed activity would put North Korea’s next test sometime in late 2022 or early 2023.
Expert opinion thinks a test is a matter of “not if, but when.”[3]
* Some speculated test dates have come and gone, but experts still believe that “North Korea is ready to conduct a nuclear test at any time if Chairman Kim Jong-un decides to do so.”[4]
* Expert opinion takes a lot of flak in various domains, but South Korean intelligence, as well as analysts abroad, have reliably anticipated every known test in the past 10 years.
North Korea has conducted a record number of missile tests this year.[5]
* Public displays of military force, however, are a wash.
* Saber rattling immediately preceded every test except one.
* Saber rattling also occurred every year when a test did not occur, except one.
North Korea is experiencing a severe economic crisis.[6]
* Beyond domestic food issues, North Korea is also buckling under crushing economic sanctions.[7]
* Experts have speculated that Kim Jong-un will use nuclear force as a bargaining chip to relieve sanctions, i.e. “You lift the sanctions, I stop rattling the nuclear saber.”
* Nuclear force might very well be a bargaining chip, but an economic crisis is not a reliable indicator of an imminent test.
* North Korea experienced below average economic performance in only 1 of 3 test years.
* However, GDP either stalled, decelerated, or contracted in 7 of the 8 years when a test did not occur.
North Korea wants to talk.
* “North Korea on Oct. 5 [2021] restored its hotlines and other communications with South Korea.”[8]
* There is little public information on terms and proposals, but given the events of the past year, we can safely assume that any communication did not go well.
To wrap it up:
* A nuclear test would be a powerful show of force in a time of domestic and international instability.
* North Korea might believe that the benefits of such a show outweigh the risks of averting peace talks and economic relief in the short term.
* North Korea might also believe that a test not only gives them the power position at the bargaining table, but that there’s a non-negligible chance a test could fast track a path to fulfilling their demands.
* As of today, I think a test is more than 70% likely to occur before April 1, 2023.
* These odds, of course, will diminish considerably as the window for this question closes.
* If peace talks with South Korea and the US publicly resume, then a test will almost certainly not occur.
[1] https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/content/cisac-north-korea
[2] https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nkorea-expands-restoration-nuke-test-site-second-tunnel-report-2022-06-16/
[3] https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/23/north-korea-nuclear-test-asia-kim-jong-un/
[4] https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2022/11/103_340681.html
[5] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/9/after-a-record-year-of-arms-testing-what-is-in-n-koreas-arsenal
[6] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/north-koreas-economy-shrank-most-in-23-years-says-south-korea-central-bank.html
[7] https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/north-korea-sanctions-un-nuclear-weapons
[8] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-11/news/north-korea-signals-interest-talks