Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?

Started Nov 21, 2022 08:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC

North Korea’s recent flurry of missile launches, including an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch on 18 November 2022, has raised expectations that it could soon test a nuclear device for the first time since 2017 (CBS). North Korea has finished all technical preparations for a new test in the underground tunnels at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test site, which has been shuttered since 2018 (Reuters). Officials in the United States and South Korea have warned for months that Pyongyang is preparing for a nuclear test after a five-year suspension — a move that would signal North Korea speeding ahead with the development of advanced weapons capabilities (Al Jazeera).

Resolution Criteria: 
This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports (e.g., Reuters, NYTimes, AP, BBC). A nuclear test would involve the detonation of a nuclear device. Radiological devices (also known as "dirty bombs") will not be considered nuclear weapons (Mass.gov). 

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6.03%
No 93.97%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 172
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 590
Average for questions older than 6 months: 212
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.283134
2.
-0.275298
3.
-0.274007
4.
-0.264508
5.
-0.260042

Consensus Trend

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