Confirmed previous forecast
0.001909
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 3 | 22 | 6 | 34 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
(0%)
Yes
26%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
39%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2024
61%
(0%)
No
Apr 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Very likely no because it is critical for Russia to have consistent leadership as security.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Ukraine war is cheapest effort for US to take over Russia. If they can justify Ukranian displacement to continue war then then they can also find someone internally to replace him. Very unlikely because Putin has serious loyalty
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
74%
(+36%)
Yes
26%
(-36%)
No
Before 2024 elections it will be an issue contention
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 29, 2024 10:16PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
39%
(-31%)
Yes
Jan 31, 2024 to Jul 31, 2024
61%
(+31%)
No
Jan 31, 2024 to Jul 31, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
It is done
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I
Files