Forecasted Questions
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(1 month from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2025 11:46AM
(3 months ago)
Aug 31, 2025 11:46AM
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2027 | Nov 30, 2025 11:46AM | 6% | +54% | +0% |
| No | 40% | Aug 31, 2025 to Feb 28, 2027 | Nov 30, 2025 11:46AM | 94% | -54% | +0% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(1 month from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2025 11:52AM
(3 months ago)
Aug 31, 2025 11:52AM
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 1% | +19% | +0% |
| No | 80% | 99% | -19% | +0% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2026 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Apr 1, 2026 04:00AM
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 02:26AM
(3 days ago)
Nov 25, 2025 02:26AM
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 2% | +8% | +0% |
| No | 90% | 98% | -8% | +0% |