RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM	In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)	0.042804
Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024)	-0.246793
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	0.303619
May 1, 2024 04:01AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	0.001909
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	0.071749
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?	-0.052379
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	-0.155487
Jul 1, 2023 04:00AM	Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?	0.083196
Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?	-0.264508
Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?	-0.14647
Feb 1, 2023 06:46PM	Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?	0.092756