It seems to me like given the switch to e10 in late 2021 and the increased obligations in the renewable transport fuel obligation (RTFO) that the trend is very likely to continue to increase. However, there are some things I don't understand which make me a bit less confident.
The RTFO obligation increased by 1.5% from 2021 to 2022. The increase from 2022 to 2023 is lower, only a 0.35% increase (see "main obligation" in table 16 here). However, a key uncertainty I have here is that the obligation is 9.6% in 2021 and 11.1% in 2022, numbers which are much higher than the biofuels share that actually occurred during those years. So my guess is that there's some kind of exemption or difference in counting between these regulations and the actual that I'm not understanding. It may be the case that these biofuel obligations are being met by fuels other than road fuels, so that the relationship between road fuels and overall fuel used in transport is an important consideration. I'd be interested to hear if anyone has any insights on this!
Another consideration, somewhat related to the above, may be fuel price. Given the E10 rollout, fuel price might be an important factor. If fuel prices are high consumers may be more willing to pick E10 due to (I assume) lower prices. If fuel prices are low maybe they're more willing to shell out for the lower ethanol blend due to perception of quality and efficiency, which may lower the numbers we see here. Here's a source with period UK fuel prices, and the weekly fuel price converted to a google sheet here.
Overall my feeling is that the trend will continue upward, and coupled with the recent changes in regulations I feel that it's likely that the share will increase due to compliance with the regulations. My guess is there may be some lag in compliance as well that would push the trend up a bit. But as mentioned a big uncertainty is the difference between the mandated obligation and the actual values leading me to believe I'm missing part of the story here, and also the potential for lower fuel prices this year leading to consumers choosing to skip E10 more often.
If anyone has thoughts or information on the factors I'm missing I'd appreciate it!
It seems to me like given the switch to e10 in late 2021 and the increased obligations in the renewable transport fuel obligation (RTFO) that the trend is very likely to continue to increase. However, there are some things I don't understand which make me a bit less confident.
The RTFO obligation increased by 1.5% from 2021 to 2022. The increase from 2022 to 2023 is lower, only a 0.35% increase (see "main obligation" in table 16 here). However, a key uncertainty I have here is that the obligation is 9.6% in 2021 and 11.1% in 2022, numbers which are much higher than the biofuels share that actually occurred during those years. So my guess is that there's some kind of exemption or difference in counting between these regulations and the actual that I'm not understanding. It may be the case that these biofuel obligations are being met by fuels other than road fuels, so that the relationship between road fuels and overall fuel used in transport is an important consideration. I'd be interested to hear if anyone has any insights on this!
Another consideration, somewhat related to the above, may be fuel price. Given the E10 rollout, fuel price might be an important factor. If fuel prices are high consumers may be more willing to pick E10 due to (I assume) lower prices. If fuel prices are low maybe they're more willing to shell out for the lower ethanol blend due to perception of quality and efficiency, which may lower the numbers we see here. Here's a source with period UK fuel prices, and the weekly fuel price converted to a google sheet here.
Overall my feeling is that the trend will continue upward, and coupled with the recent changes in regulations I feel that it's likely that the share will increase due to compliance with the regulations. My guess is there may be some lag in compliance as well that would push the trend up a bit. But as mentioned a big uncertainty is the difference between the mandated obligation and the actual values leading me to believe I'm missing part of the story here, and also the potential for lower fuel prices this year leading to consumers choosing to skip E10 more often.
If anyone has thoughts or information on the factors I'm missing I'd appreciate it!
Additional Sources
Link to a google sheet of the resolution source at time of writing for future reference.
Short summary of 2021 RTFO amendment.
Background about the E10 switch.