Broadly in line with crowd. Thinking the next six-odd months will be attritional. F16s will not be in use and although China might start upping lethal aid, it's not a game-changer. I will revisit this, as worried about bias, 1 in 6 for 17-22% might be too low - even if being cautious around success of expected Ukrainian counter offensive. Morale of Russian forces does seem stubbornly low though.