What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?

Started May 11, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC

Preparations for a counteroffensive against Russia are underway in Ukraine, and experts believe that its launch is imminent (U.S. News and World Report, Business Insider). The success or failure of this spring offensive will shape the course of the war (New York Times). 

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved using data from Brookings’ Ukraine Index. The graph “Percentage of Ukraine held by Russia” is updated monthly, and the question will resolve on the percentage reported for December 2023. Before the war began in February 2022, Russia held 7% of Ukraine (including Crimea and parts of the Donbas). In April 2023 (i.e., prior to the spring offensive), Russia held 17% of Ukraine. 
Resolution Notes

Brookings reports that Russia held 18% of Ukraine in December.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ukraine-index-tracking-developments-in-the-ukraine-war/

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 7% 0%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12% 2%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17% 6%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22% 91%
More than or equal to 22% 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 135
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 720
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.192413
2.
-0.180179
3.
-0.175268
4.
-0.159691
5.
-0.145675

Consensus Trend

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