Updating as time goes by.
0.198964
Relative Brier Score
123
Forecasts
12
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 17 | 36 | 384 | 123 | 385 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 31 | 6 | 32 |
| Questions Forecasted | 16 | 28 | 51 | 33 | 51 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 68 | 12 | 71 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
3%
(-3%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
97%
(+3%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
5%
(-9%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
95%
(+9%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3000
Extrapolating from last months' updates.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
61%
(+6%)
Yes
39%
(-6%)
No
Leaning towards the crowd's wisdom, but still precautious as discoveries are typically difficult to predict, particularly in a field where there are no direct financial implications.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-11%)
Yes
97%
(+11%)
No
Adjusting based on the insightful comments by @PeterStamp and @DimaKlenchin .
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
Yes
86%
No
As many people pointed out, 100 casualties in only one attack is highly unlikely and has been unprecedented in this conflict. However, if the war is to scale up soon in anticipation to the US election, some chances are Russia will advance, yet probably not as far as the vicinity of the Ukrainian capital.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025
92%
(0%)
No
Apr 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2024
93%
(0%)
No
Apr 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Conversations have cooled down. Probably not happening soon.