66th
Accuracy Rank

alter_hugo

Hugo
About:

Feel free to contact me at [email protected].

I started forecasting a year ago after reading Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. I also participate in Good Judgement Open - find me at @alter_hugo.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? -0.006228
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024? -0.00008
Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM UTC Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024) 0.08429
Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024) -0.055834
Apr 01, 2024 04:00PM UTC What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024? 0.000829
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? -0.004442
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation? -0.186055
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive? 0.258411
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined? -0.04495
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo? -0.015141
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces? -0.001306
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? -0.000208
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023? -0.025587
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023? -0.014301
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023? -0.004342
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023? -0.159691
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023) 0.038844
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive? -0.040333
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024? 0.039953
Sep 11, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 11, 2023 and Sep 11, 2023) 0.298987
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