From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces?

Started Mar 09, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC

This question will resolve using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (ACLED). A spreadsheet containing select columns from events is available here. This spreadsheet will be updated monthly as new data becomes available. At the time of question launch, ACLED has recorded the following fatality counts between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces:
  • 2018: 25
  • 2019: 9
  • 2020: 6907
  • 2021: 27
  • 2022: 259
  • 2023: 0

Additional Reading: 

Resolution Notes

ACLED recorded 562 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.05%
No 99.95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 54
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 453
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003851
2.
-0.003631
3.
-0.00345
4.
-0.003033
5.
-0.002007

Consensus Trend

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