In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment

Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?

Started Jun 01, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC

Earlier this spring, Italy temporarily banned ChatGPT due to privacy concerns (BBC, The Conversation). This decision sparked debate about whether other countries would follow suit (CNBC, Reuters). Access to ChatGPT was restored in Italy on 28 April 2023 after addressing the concerns of Italian regulators (Verge, AP).

Canada’s federal privacy commissioner opened an investigation into OpenAI over a complaint alleging "the collection, use and disclosure of personal information without consent," and regulators in Germany, France, Ireland, and Spain are considering similar actions (CBCThe Conference Board).


Resolution Criteria:
We will consider OpenAI banned or effectively banned if a country on the list of supported countries at the time of question launch (link to archived list) is removed from that list due to new regulatory or legislative action taken by that country. Reputable news media reports and/or official announcements by OpenAI or the country’s government will be used to determine the reason OpenAI stopped supporting access. A ban would apply to any of OpenAI's current or future Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) models, including ChatGPT, GPT3.5, GPT4, through either a web-hosted user interface or API.

If regulators ban ChatGPT specifically, but not broader API access, this question will still resolve "Yes".  Likewise if API's are banned, but not user interface components (e.g. ChatGPT), this question will resolve "Yes". Bans or regulations enacted by supranational organizations (e.g., the European Union) that are binding on its member countries would count towards resolution. OpenAI blocking access for other reasons (e.g., its initial ban on Ukraine due to sanctions on Russian-held Crimea) would not count. Temporary bans will count.

Note that the list of supported countries at the time of question launch includes Italy, so new regulatory activity by the Italian government that prompts OpenAI to stop supporting access in Italy would count.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.72%
No 97.28%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 184
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 675
Average for questions older than 6 months: 213
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.06216
2.
-0.053778
3.
-0.053778
4.
-0.053778

Consensus Trend

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