Nope, it will not happen in a democratic country.
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New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
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Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
Yes
5%
No
NYT, BBC, and CBC produces contents so I expect to use of C2PA from them.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
Yes
5%
No
META will not accept that its platform provides medium for OIE.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
I put 50-50 for this one. These are profit driven companies; their main driver is not social-good. Thus, if there is a profit increase due to C2PA, they will implement. Otherwise, I am not sure.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Less than 4 million
15%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
10%
More than or equal to 6 million
If it is required by governments, it might be used. Curious nerds are signing it right now, but I am pessimistic about its becoming a main stream.
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My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
The definition of AI-generated content is very generic. If I use instagram filters, the output is ai-generated or not. If I use gpt-4 to update my paragraph, what does it mean? Additionally, if a social media platform labels all ai-generated content, it may effect its revenue stream since advertisers do not want to pay for ai-bots
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