How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?
Started
Jun 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
“Proof of personhood” tests have been proposed as a solution for curbing AI-powered disinformation campaigns, but these tests raise questions about users’ privacy and anonymity (Stanford Internet Observatory). World ID, a component of Worldcoin, is a blockchain-based approach to this problem that provides an anonymous way to verify humanness without sharing private information (Cointelegraph, TechCrunch). It was launched globally on May 8th by OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman (Worldcoin).
Resolution Criteria:
Question will be resolved based on the number of signups reported by Worldcoin on 1 September 2023 at 5:00 pm EST. These numbers are updated in real-time, and at the time this question launched, World ID had 1.8 million sign ups. Historical data from the pre-release stage of the product is below:
Resolution Notes
World ID had 2.27 million sign-ups on 1 September 2023.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 4 million | 98% | |
| More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million | 2% | |
| More than or equal to 6 million | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 153 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 59 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 408 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
