How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?

Started Jun 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC

“Proof of personhood” tests have been proposed as a solution for curbing AI-powered disinformation campaigns, but these tests raise questions about users’ privacy and anonymity (Stanford Internet Observatory). World ID, a component of Worldcoin, is a blockchain-based approach to this problem that provides an anonymous way to verify humanness without sharing private information (Cointelegraph, TechCrunch). It was launched globally on May 8th by OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman (Worldcoin). 


Resolution Criteria:
Question will be resolved based on the number of signups reported by Worldcoin on 1 September 2023 at 5:00 pm EST. These numbers are updated in real-time, and at the time this question launched, World ID had 1.8 million sign ups. Historical data from the pre-release stage of the product is below:


Resolution Notes

World ID had 2.27 million sign-ups on 1 September 2023.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 4 million 98%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million 2%
More than or equal to 6 million 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 153
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 408
Average for questions older than 6 months: 213
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.015718
2.
-0.015713
3.
-0.015671
4.
-0.015562
5.
-0.014307

Consensus Trend

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