66th
Accuracy Rank

alter_hugo

Hugo
About:
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0.276946

Relative Brier Score

131

Forecasts

14

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 3 35 385 131 393
Comments 1 1 27 7 33
Questions Forecasted 3 29 53 35 53
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 3 61 14 73
 Definitions
New Prediction
alter_hugo
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
28%
Yes
May 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2024
72%
No
May 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2024
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New Prediction
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New Prediction
alter_hugo
made their 16th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0% (0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
0% (-5%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
100% (+5%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 3000
 Extrapolating the trend as only one month is left.
Files
New Badge
alter_hugo
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Apr 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
alter_hugo
made their 13th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
16% (-5%)
Yes
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024

Going down in the crowd's direction - the tension seems to be cooling off.

Files
New Prediction
alter_hugo
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4% (0%)
Yes
96% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
alter_hugo
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
alter_hugo
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
99% (0%)
No
May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

"Hamas offered 40-day ceasefire in exchange for release of hostages, says UK’s Cameron" (link).

Files
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