Sonodo
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
4%
Less than 7%
14%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
70%
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
8%
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
4%
More than or equal to 22%

The counter-offensive has started slowly and Russia has strong fortifications, so I would be surprised if Ukraine made a lot of progress, but likely they will make some advancements. However, I do not think Russia in the near future has resources or even the will to attempt capturing more land than they currently occupy.

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