fionack
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5% (+3%)
Less than 7%
40% (+25%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
45% (-10%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
7% (-18%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
3% (0%)
More than or equal to 22%

I expect this to at least decrease considering the potential civil war in Russia (though they are most likely to only lose the territory they didn’t have already before the war): https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-06-24/mutiny-in-russia-foreshadows-defeat-in-ukraine

However, Putin will need a show of strength more than ever to stay in power if the Wagner forces are stopped. Whether he has the resources/ability to push harder in Ukraine doesn’t seem likely though. 

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