I'm increasing my forecast amid rising tensions and a declining security situation that is ratcheting up a bit today.

Al Jazeera: "International observers and human rights defenders are awaiting an anticipated proposal for a UN-backed, Kenya-led police mission to Haiti "
https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1696960982000742443

Bloomberg: "The US Embassy in Haiti urged US citizens to leave the country as soon as possible amid escalating gang violence and increasingly difficult mobility"
https://twitter.com/business/status/1696966921978085801

This seems to show the Embassy's message:
https://twitter.com/mel39169/status/1696980337878806626

So much on twitter is from influence campaigns, so it's hard to tell what reflects actual people's feelings, but there are certainly a lot of voices of people who want Ariel Henry out. With a deteriorating security situation, it's not hard to understand why. Here is but one example among many, from today:
"We are calling on all Ayitien when Ariel Henry left for UN assembly in September 22 to carry on an coup d'etat or keep Ariel Henry out of Ayiti"
https://twitter.com/cdoirilus/status/1696982026132340924

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