belikewater

As Iran draws closer to Russia and China, it cares less about any Western sanctions, and Western countries know that. The West also desperately wants Iran to rein in its proxies a bit more, especially the Houthis. So I can't picture snapback sanctions being imposed in the next 6 months.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202403300067

The situation in Lebanon remains dire, year after year, and the political splits are deep and unending. Nonetheless, there is some hope that a compromise could be reached, based on talks in January: https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comment/2024/01/31/there-is-an-opportunity-coming-up-to-stabilise-lebanon-by-finally-electing-a-president/

I don't put a lot of hope in this, but otherwise, my forecast would be a lot closer to zero.

I think it's likely that at some point before Dec 1, such a ceasefire will start. There is a lot of time between now and then, though, and I can picutre events going either way.

As for the parallel question, my forecast may be too high. As I wrote in my forecast for that question, declaring war on Hezbollah would be too risky for Israel in the near future; opening a new front while Gaza is still a mess could turn into a quagmire, both politically and militarily.

My forecast may be a bit too high. Declaring war on Hezbollah would be too risky for Israel in the near future; opening a new front while Gaza is still a mess could turn into a quagmire, both politically and militarily.

Revising my forecast upwards because @Tolga points out that the risk of an 84-year-old male dying in the US is almost 10%. Given that his health is known to be bad, I'll increase my forecast a bit past that.

I'm going to start at the crowd's level for now. I tend to think there's more risk that the Iranian regime will collapse than there probably is in a given year. People aren't happy with the government, and a lot fewer people go to mosques anymore. It's a matter of time before it crumbles. On top of that, Ali Khamenei is elderly and has various health problems. Realistically, his poor health probably contributes the most to my current forecast.

Realistically, there's no chance Iran will reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium. I'm just not sure how much information the IAEA is going to get this year.