No chance. Iran is committed to developing nuclear weapons.
0.122224
Relative Brier Score
160
Forecasts
76
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 21 | 513 | 102 | 928 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 49 | 3 | 175 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 20 | 66 | 33 | 97 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 193 | 11 | 425 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
No way, no how.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
No chance at this point.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
I am maintaining my forecast, as I don't see any new information that would make me think the risk has increased.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Maintaining my forecast, as little time remains, and these companies' incentives remain the same.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
No chance. Only one month left in the forecast period, and it would be a hugely drastic change. I'm maintaining my forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(0%)
2023 Q4
0%
(0%)
2024 Q1
0%
(0%)
2024 Q2
Maintaining my forecast, as I don't see any new information that would make me change my forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
I'm maintaining my forecast as I have seen no indication of anything that would change the risk.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
95%
(0%)
No
May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024
I am maintaining my forecast. The Houthis keep trying, but I don't think it's likely that a vessel that satisfies the detailed resolution criteria of this question will be hit, because so few Israeli vessels are traveling that route.
Files
I'm maintaining my forecast, as the same rationale still holds.
https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/124763