belikewater
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
0% (0%)
Oman
0% (0%)
Qatar
4% (-1%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (0%)
Tunisia

The war in Gaza precludes it. The only possibility is Saudi Arabia, but I'm lowering the possibility of Saudi Arabia recognizing Israeli statehood by the end of the year because it's quite possible that the situation in Gaza will continue to be so bad that KSA cannot yet publicly recognize Israel without substantial public backlash.

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