8th
Accuracy Rank

belikewater

About:

I started forecasting at Good Judgment Open in 2021. Here's my profile there: https://www.gjopen.com/memberships/99943

Email: [email protected]

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Forecasted Questions
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Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 01, 2024 01:55AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 3%
No 90% 97%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 01, 2024 02:57AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 50% 4%
No 50% 96%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 01, 2024 03:00AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 4%
No 98% 96%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 01, 2024 03:59AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 2%
No 99% 98%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 01, 2024 03:58AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 1%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 1%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 01, 2024 04:02AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 11% May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Aug 1, 2024 6%
No 89% May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Aug 1, 2024 94%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 01, 2024 04:25AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 35% May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Jun 1, 2024 21%
No 65% May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 Jun 1, 2024 79%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 01, 2024 04:32AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 20% May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 Jun 1, 2024 16%
No 80% May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 Jun 1, 2024 84%

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 01, 2024 04:39AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 60% 81%
No 40% 19%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 01, 2024 04:42AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 70% 80%
No 30% 20%
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