Forecasted Questions
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 04:46AM UTC
(19 days ago)
May 01, 2024 04:46AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 | Aug 1, 2024 | 8% | -6% | -5% |
| No | 98% | May 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025 | Aug 1, 2024 | 92% | +6% | +5% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 04:57AM UTC
(19 days ago)
May 01, 2024 04:57AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Jun 1, 2024 | 3% | +27% | -1% |
| No | 70% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Jun 1, 2024 | 97% | -27% | +1% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 05:04AM UTC
(19 days ago)
May 01, 2024 05:04AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Aug 1, 2024 | 7% | +3% | -2% |
| No | 90% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Aug 1, 2024 | 93% | -3% | +2% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 05:06AM UTC
(19 days ago)
May 01, 2024 05:06AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 65% | 55% | +10% | -3% |
| No | 35% | 45% | -10% | +3% |
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 05:11AM UTC
(19 days ago)
May 01, 2024 05:11AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Jun 1, 2024 | 16% | -11% | -1% |
| No | 95% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Jun 1, 2024 | 84% | +11% | +1% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 05:13AM UTC
(19 days ago)
May 01, 2024 05:13AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Jun 1, 2024 | 10% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 90% | May 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2024 | Jun 1, 2024 | 90% | +0% | +1% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 05:14AM UTC
(19 days ago)
May 01, 2024 05:14AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2024 Q1 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| 2024 Q2 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 05:16AM UTC
(19 days ago)
May 01, 2024 05:16AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 96% | +4% | +0% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 05:17AM UTC
(19 days ago)
May 01, 2024 05:17AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 11% | -8% | -3% |
| No | 97% | 89% | +8% | +3% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 05:20AM UTC
(19 days ago)
May 01, 2024 05:20AM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |