No chance. Iran is committed to developing nuclear weapons.
-0.03224
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 21 | 513 | 102 | 928 |
Comments | 0 | 1 | 49 | 3 | 175 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 20 | 66 | 33 | 97 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 193 | 11 | 425 |
Definitions |
No way, no how.
No chance at this point.
I am maintaining my forecast, as I don't see any new information that would make me think the risk has increased.
Maintaining my forecast, as little time remains, and these companies' incentives remain the same.
No chance. Only one month left in the forecast period, and it would be a hugely drastic change. I'm maintaining my forecast.
Maintaining my forecast, as I don't see any new information that would make me change my forecast.
I'm maintaining my forecast as I have seen no indication of anything that would change the risk.
I am maintaining my forecast. The Houthis keep trying, but I don't think it's likely that a vessel that satisfies the detailed resolution criteria of this question will be hit, because so few Israeli vessels are traveling that route.
I'm maintaining my forecast, as the same rationale still holds.
https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/124763