The background base rate for Haiti is 16% per year as far as I can tell. 35 of these events in its history that I can find (source + 2004 coup + 2021 assassination), and the denominator is 219. With a third of the year left, that's 5%.
The next question is whether to adjust from the base rate. I'm not sure yet whether the challenges that Ariel Henry faces are any different than other Haitian presidents averaged out. So I will have to keep researching. Therefore I start out at 5%.
The background base rate for Haiti is 16% per year as far as I can tell. 35 of these events in its history that I can find (source + 2004 coup + 2021 assassination), and the denominator is 219. With a third of the year left, that's 5%.
The next question is whether to adjust from the base rate. I'm not sure yet whether the challenges that Ariel Henry faces are any different than other Haitian presidents averaged out. So I will have to keep researching. Therefore I start out at 5%.