Confirmed previous forecast
-0.065
Relative Brier Score
264
Forecasts
65
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 30 | 383 | 264 | 968 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 36 | 31 | 108 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 24 | 78 | 54 | 138 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 73 | 65 | 161 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Yes
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-12%)
Yes
Following others on my team, I now think my last update was underconfident
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
2023 Q2
0%
(+0%)
2023 Q3
0%
(+0%)
2023 Q4
1%
(+0%)
2024 Q1
2%
(+0%)
2024 Q2
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
67%
(+0%)
Yes
33%
(+0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-10%)
Yes
Updating on number of publications this year (only 10 so far)
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
4%
(-5%)
Yes
Time + I think most of the risk was concentrated a few months ago, around the time of maximal hype
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(+0%)
Yes
Sep 12, 2023 to Mar 12, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(+0%)
Intel
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
97%
(+1%)
No
Time
Files