2e10e122

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 1, 2025 05:00AM By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA? -0.003347
    Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%? 0.001888
    Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024? 0.000548
    Jul 1, 2024 04:01AM Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? -0.001293
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.072078
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? 0.415271
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? -0.004428
    Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024) 0.020473
    Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024? -0.001779
    Mar 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? 0.002059
    Feb 1, 2024 05:00AM Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023? -0.000273
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023? -0.040492
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits? 0.049157
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? -0.000721
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023? -0.007025
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023? -0.103322
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023? -0.04269
    Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023? -0.075904
    Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023) 0.000293
    Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023) -0.587878
     
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