RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 29, 2025 08:38AM
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
No	97%	98%	-1%	+0%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 29, 2025 11:12AM
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	10%	4%	+6%	+0%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	70%	82%	-12%	+1%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	20%	13%	+7%	-1%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 29, 2025 11:35AM
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	-1%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+1%

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 29, 2025 01:57PM
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 62%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%	27%	22%	+5%	-2%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%	73%	77%	-4%	+2%
More than or equal to 74%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 29, 2025 02:40PM
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+0%

What will the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score for OpenAI’s highest scoring model be on 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 07:31AM
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 70	1%	12%	-11%	+8%
Between 71 and 74, inclusive	17%	18%	-1%	+7%
Between 75 and 78, inclusive	37%	37%	+0%	-5%
Between 79 and 82, inclusive	25%	23%	+2%	-6%
More than or equal to 83	20%	10%	+10%	-4%

What will the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score for DeepSeek’s highest scoring model be on 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 07:57AM
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 66	1%	25%	-24%	+25%
Between 67 and 70, inclusive	14%	21%	-7%	+7%
Between 71 and 74, inclusive	33%	27%	+6%	-18%
Between 75 and 78, inclusive	29%	19%	+10%	-11%
More than or equal to 79	23%	9%	+14%	-2%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 08:41AM
(16 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2026 04:00AM
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 07:49AM
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	10%	-7%	+3%
No	97%	90%	+7%	-3%

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2026 04:00AM
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2025 10:02AM
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	42%	-17%	-11%
No	75%	58%	+17%	+11%

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