RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 5, 2023 07:14PM	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023)	0.0
Jan 1, 2023 04:59AM	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2022 and Jan 1, 2023)	0.001714
Dec 17, 2022 04:00PM	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2022 and Dec 17, 2022)	0.00064
Nov 17, 2022 04:00PM	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 17, 2022 and Nov 17, 2022)	0.004077
Oct 17, 2022 04:00PM	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 17, 2022 and Oct 17, 2022)	0.00336
Jul 1, 2022 08:00PM	How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2022 H1	-0.010837
May 17, 2022 04:00PM	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 17, 2022 and May 17, 2022)	0.0
Apr 17, 2022 04:00PM	In the next 6 months, will the United States Government publicly cancel or deny 1 or more visas to employees of any Chinese-based company accused of committing intellectual property theft? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 17, 2022 and Apr 17, 2022)	-0.00039
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM	Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021)	-0.007473
Jan 1, 2022 01:52PM	Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?	-0.000349
Jan 1, 2022 12:59PM	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	-0.063036
Jul 1, 2021 05:32PM	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?	-0.001095
Jun 1, 2021 06:44PM	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?	0.000267
Sep 13, 2020 06:54PM	Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?	-0.132756