Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000181
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
10
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 69 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
97%
(0%)
No
Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 30, 2025 02:58PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025
97%
(0%)
No
Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 30, 2025 02:58PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 29, 2025 07:17PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
May 29, 2025 to Nov 29, 2025
97%
(0%)
No
May 29, 2025 to Nov 29, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 1, 2025 03:05AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
May 1, 2025 to Nov 1, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
May 1, 2025 to Nov 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
