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ben
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CTO @ Cultivate Labs
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How Will the U.S. Technology Sector Develop in the Coming Years?
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Iran: Threats & Influence
Issue Campaign: U.S. Department of Defense - Silicon Valley Relationship
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Mission: AI Advancement
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Date Ended
Question
Relative Brier Score
May 31, 2025 05:00PM
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
0.100945
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)
0.019474
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
-0.00719
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
-0.001158
Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
-0.099055
Oct 1, 2024 07:00PM
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 29, 2024 and Oct 1, 2024)
0.203836
Apr 15, 2024 10:00PM
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 15, 2024 and Apr 15, 2024)
0.0
Mar 15, 2024 10:00PM
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 15, 2024 and Mar 15, 2024)
0.0
Mar 3, 2024 05:00PM
Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?
0.000565
Mar 1, 2024 05:00AM
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?
0.003542
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM
From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces?
0.006569
Jan 15, 2024 10:00PM
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 15, 2023 and Jan 15, 2024)
-0.00531
Jan 1, 2024 05:00PM
Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?
-0.14622
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM
Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?
0.063136
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM
What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?
-0.05883
Dec 15, 2023 10:00PM
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Dec 15, 2023)
-0.004743
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM
Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)
0.06312
Nov 1, 2023 04:01AM
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
-0.019547
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM
Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?
-0.032184
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM
Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?
0.104247
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❤️
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:blush:
😁
:grin:
👍
:+1:
☺️
:relaxed:
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:pensive:
😄
:smile:
😭
:sob:
💋
:kiss:
😒
:unamused:
😳
:flushed:
😜
:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
🙈
:see_no_evil:
😉
:wink:
😃
:smiley:
😢
:cry:
😝
:stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:
😱
:scream:
😡
:rage:
😏
:smirk:
😞
:disappointed:
😅
:sweat_smile:
😚
:kissing_closed_eyes:
🙊
:speak_no_evil:
😌
:relieved:
😀
:grinning:
😋
:yum:
👌
:ok_hand:
😐
:neutral_face:
😕
:confused:
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