henrytolchard

Henry Tolchard
About:
Show more
Forecasted Questions

    How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    3 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (2 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    May 2, 2025 02:26PM
    (3 months ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Less than or equal to 59 10% 2%
    Between 60 and 69, inclusive 40% 12%
    Between 70 and 79, inclusive 30% 52%
    Between 80 and 89, inclusive 16% 29%
    More than or equal to 90 4% 6%

    Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    1 Forecast
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    May 16, 2025 05:37PM
    (2 months ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Yes 4% 1%
    No 96% 99%

    If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

    Forecast Count:
    3 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jun 3, 2025 05:05PM
    (2 months ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Less than 30 days 50% 64%
    30 days 2% 9%
    31-60 days 17% 7%
    61-90 days 6% 6%
    91 days or more 25% 14%

    Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    6 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (2 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jun 3, 2025 05:06PM
    (2 months ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Argentina 0% 7%
    Bolivia 3% 9%
    Ecuador 0% 6%

    What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    2 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jun 3, 2025 05:07PM
    (2 months ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Less than 62% 0% 0%
    More than or equal to 62% but less than 66% 0% 0%
    More than or equal to 66% but less than 70% 48% 26%
    More than or equal to 70% but less than 74% 52% 73%
    More than or equal to 74% 0% 0%
    Files
    Tip: Mention someone by typing @username