Forecasted Questions
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 2, 2025 02:26PM
(3 months ago)
May 2, 2025 02:26PM
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 59 | 10% | 2% | +9% | -1% |
Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 40% | 12% | +28% | +0% |
Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 30% | 52% | -22% | +16% |
Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 16% | 29% | -13% | -11% |
More than or equal to 90 | 4% | 6% | -2% | -4% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 16, 2025 05:37PM
(2 months ago)
May 16, 2025 05:37PM
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | 1% | +3% | -5% |
No | 96% | 99% | -3% | +5% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 3, 2025 05:05PM
(2 months ago)
Jun 3, 2025 05:05PM
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 30 days | 50% | 64% | -14% | +1% |
30 days | 2% | 9% | -7% | -1% |
31-60 days | 17% | 7% | +10% | +0% |
61-90 days | 6% | 6% | +0% | +0% |
91 days or more | 25% | 14% | +11% | -1% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 3, 2025 05:06PM
(2 months ago)
Jun 3, 2025 05:06PM
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Argentina | 0% | 7% | -7% | +0% |
Bolivia | 3% | 9% | -6% | -1% |
Ecuador | 0% | 6% | -6% | +0% |
What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 3, 2025 05:07PM
(2 months ago)
Jun 3, 2025 05:07PM
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 62% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70% | 48% | 26% | +22% | -20% |
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74% | 52% | 73% | -21% | +20% |
More than or equal to 74% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |