Time
0.001244
Relative Brier Score
16
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 84 | 16 | 229 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 50 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 32 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 55 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 19, 2024 02:18PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-1%)
Yes
Feb 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2024
98%
(+1%)
No
Feb 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2024
Staying low as the strikes between Israel and Hezbollah seem to not be immediately leading to a larger war
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 12, 2024 02:30PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2024
97%
(0%)
No
Feb 12, 2024 to Mar 12, 2024
Holding steady as the possibility of Israel launching an operation into Rafah increases
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
98%
(+1%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-15%)
Yes
95%
(+15%)
No
Updating with crowd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Updating with crowd
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 9, 2024 06:55PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Feb 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2024
97%
No
Feb 9, 2024 to Mar 9, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
I think that the probability of war is very low:
- Hezbollah seems content with the current tit-for-tat nature of its conflict with Israel (neither escalating nor deescalating)
- I think Hezbollah knows that a direct war would essentially result in an elimination of their current position in Lebanon, and certainly not lead to any substantive gains
- Iran seems to trying to influence its proxies to not escalate any conflicts
- If Hezbollah was set on war, they could have done so already
Over time, if the current conditions (sporadic missile attacks, etc) hold then this probability can remain steady or slightly decrease over time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- I think that if Hezbollah is going to attack, it will do so sooner rather than later (to take advantage of Israel being preoccupied with the war in Gaza)
- If Israel launches an offensive into Rafah then that could result in a humanitarian crisis / increase the probability a Hezbollah attack
- The irrationality of the actors involved (motivated by extremist ideology) makes this inherently more unpredictable
- The continuing nature of the ongoing attacks increases the probability of Hezbollah causing 50+ Israeli casualties
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Time