Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?

Started May 18, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 09, 2024 05:00AM UTC

Pakistan is set to have elections by October 2023. The specific date has not yet been set, as it depends on the timing of the dissolution of the Assembly, but opposition parties have agreed to hold national and provincial elections at the same time (Article 224 of the Constitution of Pakistan, Al Jazeera). Imran Khan, the former prime minister of Pakistan whose arrest on corruption charges has led to widespread protests, is expected to run (Reuters, BBC). 

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved using reputable news media reports, and will resolve “Yes” if Imran Khan is elected prime minister by the National Assembly of Pakistan following Pakistan’s next national elections. If another candidate is elected prime minister, the question will resolve “No.” If no government has been formed by 31 December 2023, the end date will be extended until a prime minister is elected or new elections are called. If subsequent elections are called because no government was formed, the question will be resolved as “No.” Appointment as a care-taker prime minister (in accordance with Article 224 of Pakistan's constitution) will not count towards resolution.

Additional Reading: 
Resolution Notes

Shehbaz Sharif was elected prime minister of Pakistan

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/03/asia/shehbaz-sharif-prime-minister-pakistan-intl/index.html

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.22%
No 99.78%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 104
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 683
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.007871
2.
-0.006615
3.
-0.005588
4.
-0.005479
5.
-0.005442

Consensus Trend

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username