28th
Accuracy Rank

johnnycaffeine

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? 0.000399
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? -0.000172
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025? -0.002246
    Jun 25, 2025 02:00AM Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer? -0.032173
    Jun 21, 2025 11:50PM Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025? 0.1496
    Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025) 0.023775
    May 31, 2025 05:00PM On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? 0.05772
    Apr 28, 2025 01:00PM Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025? -0.002625
    Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025) 0.375028
    Jan 1, 2025 07:00PM Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 1, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) -0.14259
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? -0.001009
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? -0.006124
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024? -0.000004
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? -0.006661
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? 0.002178
    Jan 1, 2025 05:00AM By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA? -0.003153
    Dec 1, 2024 07:00PM Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2024 and Dec 1, 2024) -0.00612
    Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? 0.13806
    Nov 30, 2024 04:59AM Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025? -0.045163
    Nov 6, 2024 04:00PM Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2024 and Nov 6, 2024) -0.000019
     
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