mariaaberaldo

About:
Show more

No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 5
Comments 0 0 0 0 1
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 4
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 0
 Definitions
New Badge
mariaaberaldo
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

I believe there is a considerable possibility of Bolsonaro contesting the results of 2022 presidential elections, since he has been constructing a very oppositive speech on the Rule of Law, eletronic votes and the power of the Supreme Court and the Electoral Superior Court. Even though he has made many allegations against the eletronic voting system through the years, political tensions are higher at the moment due to the eligibility of former president Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, in a way that there may be more formal confrontations regarding the results.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

There is a chance Bolsonaro would not contest the elections in case he motivated other forms of contestations, such as social or political.

Files
New Badge
mariaaberaldo
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Considering the international retaliation on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine and the consequent negative impact on the market, specially regarding and energy security , I believe there's a small chance of China trying to take on any Taiwanese island. China is very dependent on the importation of agricultural goods and other relevant products for food industry, therefore, the risk of suffering any international retaliation in this matter would be a great risk to take. Even though this affirmative may not be fully applied to energy security, since China is somewhat independent when it comes to charcoal energy, economical measures could be a hard hit to the county's population. 

Files
New Badge
mariaaberaldo
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
mariaaberaldo
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2%
Less than or equal to 5
28%
Between 6 and 7, inclusive
70%
More than or equal to 8

There's a great possibility China will have a high number of universities listed in QS World University ranking because from 2020 to 2021 there was a huge increase in comparison to 2019 to 2020. This might demonstrate a tendency of more Chinese universities being recognized in the ranking. 

Files
New Prediction

Within a month since the invasion started, Russia-Ukraine borders are completly taken by Russian troops, as observed in the BBC invasion track (available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682). In this context, the closest NATO country to this invaded area is Romania. Therefore, considering that the area under Russian military control is spreading from the borders to the countryside of Ukraine, and the closest point to Romania in the southern part of Ukraine under Russian control is around 300 kilometers away, it is possible to state that there is a relevant possibility of a fatality involving a Romanian citizen, thus involving NATO itself. That is why 35% may be considered as a safe probability to this event. However, it is not possible to contemplate a higher probability, even though russian military control areas are spreading fast, because this country might have another military strategy to advance its domain in the countryside and in the capital of Ukraine. In this scenario, the troops would remain far from Romania, which could deviate the risk of fatalities.

Files
New Badge
mariaaberaldo
earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Badge
mariaaberaldo
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username