Confirmed previous forecast
0.00409
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
7
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 69 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Yes
92%
No
Why do you think you're right?
While these figures indicate steady growth, reaching a 20% market share by the end of the second quarter would require a significant acceleration in BEV adoption. Analysts at Transport & Environment project that BEVs could reach 24% EU car market share by 2025 https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/evs-could-reach-24-eu-car-market-share-by-2025-te-says-2024-09-17/?utm_source=chatgpt.com However, achieving this milestone by the end of Q2 2025 may be challenging.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The significant acceleration might happen.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
almost impossible
Files
Why might you be wrong?
unexpected situation
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
His position is stronger than ever, with the war likely to conclude in a way that benefits him.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
He could have illness or other unexpected issues.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Going to an extreme forecast given the proximity of the deadline.
Why might you be wrong?
Could be wrong if there was a data error or a large number of sales were not recorded appropriately?