Confirmed previous forecast
0.003951
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
10
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 72 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 22 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast. This is not the strategic priority for either China or India.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I am keeping 1% for any potential black swan event.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-8%)
Yes
100%
(+8%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Going to an extreme forecast given the proximity of the deadline.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Could be wrong if there was a data error or a large number of sales were not recorded appropriately?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
It appears highly unlikely that the European Commission / Eurostat region will import 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from Russia in any single quarter of 2025. According to the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis (IEEFA), the EU’s pipeline gas imports from Russia via the only remaining major route (via TurkStream) ended transit through Ukraine as of 1 January 2025, which removed around 15 bcm per year of Russian pipeline gas. The threshold of 15 bcm in a quarter would require about 60 bcm per annum (15 × 4), which is well above the 35-39 bcm projected for 2025 total Russian gas exports to the EU.
Why might you be wrong?
Some imported LNG might transit or be re-exported which complicates the situation.