Likud still polling well, although November is a while away.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
A coalition government is formed and Yair Lapid becomes Prime Minister
65%
A coalition government is formed and Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister
5%
A coalition government is formed but neither Lapid nor Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister
15%
A coalition government is not formed
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
Yes
We are a while away from the election, and while the FDL lead ATM, the PD could easily overtake. Elections tend to be volatile, and Italian elections especially so.
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I'm slightly lower than the crowd here, think he's pretty likely to lose but think the challenge is slightly less likely than others do. Probably a 15% chance that he wins, and then obviously he wouldn't contest the result.